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A system dynamics simulation of marine economic development — evidence from Zhejiang province in China
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DOI：10.3389/fmars.2026.1818987.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
As coastal economies transition from scale expansion to high-quality development; marine growth depends on coordinated industrial upgrading; innovation; port capacity; openness; and ecological protection. Existing research often treats these factors separately; overlooking delayed feedback; nonlinear constraints; and resilience to external shocks. This study models the marine economy as a complex adaptive system to examine how subsystem interactions shape long-term development. Using Zhejiang data for 2017–2030; we construct a system dynamics model integrating marine industry; technological innovation; port capacity; economic openness and cooperation; and ecological protection through causal-loop diagrams; stock-flow modeling; validation; and scenario simulation. Results identify a short-term masking effect in the innovation loop: weaker innovation does not immediately halt gross ocean product (GOP) growth because of inertia; but reduces the value added of emerging marine industries by approximately 16.7% relative to the 2030 baseline. Port capacity transmits effects between industrial expansion and ecological governance; a 60% decline in cargo throughput slows emerging-industry growth and constrains environmental investment. Marine ecological protection exhibits constraint-dependent nonlinear effects: it promotes GOP growth under weak constraints but slows it under strong constraints; while inducing a rise-then-fall pattern in the value added of emerging marine industries and a transition toward low-carbon logistics. Scenario simulations show that strong internal innovation support also improves resilience to severe external shocks; increasing projected 2030 GOP by about RMB 35 billion relative to the dual-negative-shock scenario. By revealing cross-subsystem feedback and shock-transmission mechanisms; this study advances marine economic analysis beyond static; single-factor approaches and informs coordinated policy design.
Keywords:
dynamic evolution
marine economy
system dynamics
complex adaptive systems
nonlinear feedback
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