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Adaptive interacting particle system algorithm for aircraft conflict probability estimation
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DOI：10.1016/j.ast.2016.05.027.png)
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Abstract
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Maintaining some specific security zones between aircraft to avoid collisions is mandatory in air traffic management. In this paper, we improve the accuracy of conflict probability estimation with an interacting particle system (IPS) algorithm. More precisely, a set of intermediate conflict zones is automatically created during IPS procedure to reduce the variability of conditional probability estimation. This method also increases significantly the convergence rate. The efficiency of this strategy is analysed on a simple air traffic scenario and compared with other IPS strategies. (C) 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
Keywords:
Conflict probability
Interacting particle system
Rare event estimation
Adaptive algorithm
Score function
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