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Addressing climate resilience in energy system modelling: a multi-model framework for Norway
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DOI：10.1016/j.segy.2026.100238.png)
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Abstract
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In the midst of the energy transition, energy systems with growing shares of renewables are shifting from centralised to decentralised structures and from dispatchable to weather-dependent production. Combined with the variability of weather patterns, intensified by climate change, they are exposed to risks that are yet to be fully understood. This study leverages a coupled energy system modelling framework, combining socio-technical transition narratives with quantitative modelling, to evaluate the resilience of the Norwegian energy system in 2050 under alternative technological pathways. Four socio-technical transition scenarios, based on long-term capacity expansion optimisation, are evaluated under operational conditions. A comprehensive test matrix is used to stress-test the system under conditions of hydrological scarcity and compound weather events. Findings show that integrating climate change into the analysis of future low-carbon energy systems requires moving beyond coarser temporal representations of the system to assess reliable operation while also exposing contrasting vulnerabilities across pathways and highlighting the potential of a multi-model strategy to address the multifaceted challenges of a rapidly changing climate.
Keywords:
Energy system modelling
Sustainable energy planning
Renewable energy system
Climate-resilient energy system
Compound weather events
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