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Agricultural methane emissions and non-communicable disease mortality in West Africa: an ecological panel study of the climate-health nexus, 2015–2020
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DOI：10.1007/s10661-026-15800-5.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Agricultural systems are major sources of methane emissions, contributing to climate change with potential downstream effects on population health. West Africa faces a growing burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) alongside agricultural intensification, yet the relationship between agricultural emissions and NCD mortality remains unexplored. We examined whether changes in agricultural methane emissions were associated with NCD mortality trends across West African countries. We conducted an ecological panel study of 11 West African countries from 2015 to 2020 using World Bank World Development Indicators data. The exposure was agricultural methane emissions, measured in carbon dioxide equivalents (Mt CO₂e). The primary outcome was the probability (%) of dying from NCDs between exact ages 30 and 70 for both sexes combined; sex-stratified outcomes for women and men were examined as secondary analyses. We classified countries by emission trajectory: decreasing (> 5% reduction), stable, or increasing (> 10% increase). For each outcome we estimated associations using pooled ordinary least squares, within-country fixed effects, mixed effects models with random intercepts, and a descriptive group-by-period comparison of NCD mortality trajectories between The Gambia (largest emission reduction: -28.3%) and other countries. Sensitivity analyses assessed robustness to influential observations, functional form, and temporal specification. For both sexes combined, pooled analysis suggested an inverse cross-sectional association between agricultural methane and NCD mortality (β = -0.085; 95% CI: -0.126 to -0.043; p < 0.001). However, within-country fixed effects models showed no association (β = 0.027; 95% CI: -0.081 to 0.134; p = 0.62), indicating confounding by time-invariant country characteristics. The intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.984, indicating 98.4% of variance occurred between countries. A descriptive group-by-period comparison found no differential change for The Gambia versus other countries (0.62 percentage points; 95% CI: -0.78 to 2.03; p = 0.39). Sex-stratified analyses were consistent: the pooled inverse association was present for both women (β = -0.077; p = 0.001) and men (β = -0.096; p = 0.004) but was eliminated under fixed effects (women p = 0.27; men p = 0.88), and excluding Nigeria reversed the pooled association (both sexes β = + 0.091, p = 0.014), confirming it was driven by a single influential country. Agricultural methane emission reductions were not associated with short-term changes in NCD mortality in West Africa. The high between-country clustering suggests that stable country-level factors including health system capacity, socioeconomic development, and baseline disease burden are more strongly associated with NCD mortality patterns. Longer follow-up periods and individual-level studies are needed to evaluate potential health co-benefits of agricultural emission reductions.
Keywords:
Methane emissions
Non-communicable diseases
Climate change
West Africa
Ecological study
Panel analysis
Fixed effects
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