An explainable ensemble deep learning model for long-term streamflow forecasting under multiple uncertainties

Xinyuan Qian

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133968

An explainable ensemble deep learning model for long-term streamflow forecasting under multiple uncertainties

2025-07-23

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DOI：10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133968

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Abstract

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• Developed a hierarchical optimization framework for long-term streamflow forecast. • Proposed a DS-based predictor selection to reduce uncertainty for streamflow forecast. • Verified Stacking ensemble forecast for accuracy increase and uncertainty reduction. • Revealed several key insights for monthly streamflow forecast by SHAP analysis.

Keywords:

hierarchical optimization

predictor selection

stacking ensemble

streamflow forecast

uncertainty reduction

An explainable ensemble deep learning model for long-term streamflow forecasting under multiple uncertainties

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