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An integrated CRITIC–MABAC framework for quantitative evaluation of construction project portfolio risks
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DOI：10.1080/15623599.2026.2665358.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Managing risks at the construction portfolio level is increasingly important as projects become larger, more interconnected and more vulnerable to external and internal uncertainties. This study aims to develop and validate an integrated quantitative framework for evaluating risks at the construction project portfolio level using Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) and Multi-Attributive Border Approximation Area Comparison (MABAC) methods. Initially, forty-five risk factors were identified through a comprehensive literature review and expert consultation, then refined to the 10 most critical using the Delphi method. Data were collected from 96 experts in large-scale civil engineering projects. The CRITIC method was used to derive objective weights by considering both contrast intensity and inter-criteria correlation, while the MABAC approach ranked four strategic portfolio scenarios according to their risk exposure. Findings indicate that macroeconomic volatility, represents the highest external risk. Internal risks such as ineffective resource allocation, inter-project dependencies and frequent organizational changes also ranked highly. The proposed framework reduces subjectivity in risk prioritization. Based on these findings, it is recommended that construction organizations adopt financial risk hedging strategies to mitigate macroeconomic volatility, while strengthening internal governance mechanisms, resource allocation planning and inter-project coordination to reduce systemic portfolio risks.
Keywords:
Construction portfolio risk
CRITIC
MABAC
MCDM
Journal
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3.4
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255
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