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Anthropogenic and natural drivers of the Earth's radiation budget changes in South and Southeast Asia (2001‒2022)
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DOI：10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.009.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Quantifying the impacts of human activities and natural variability on the Earth's Radiation Budget (ERB) is critical for South and Southeast Asia, a region experiencing rapid socioeconomic development and high climate vulnerability. However, systematically disentangling the competing effects of powerful natural climate modes from the complex mosaic of anthropogenic forcings at regional scales remains a remarkable scientific challenge. This study addresses this research gap by analyzing 22 years (2001–2022) of satellite observations from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES). A machine learning framework combining random forest and Shapley additive explanations was used to quantify the sensitivity of these radiative indicators to a suite of environmental drivers, including cloud properties, greenhouse gases, aerosols, and land surface characteristics. The results reveal a significant regional warming imbalance, marked by a trend of −1.09 W/m2 per per decade in outgoing longwave radiation and an increase in net radiation of +0.75 W/m2 per per decade under all-sky conditions (including clouds and clear areas). This net radiation trend is almost double the recent global average trend of approximately +0.38 W/m2 per decadeper decade. Under clear-sky conditions (cloud-free areas), the warming is even more pronounced, with a net radiation trend of +1.58 W m-2 per decade. Attribution analysis demonstrates that natural variability, primarily through changes in cloud properties, was the dominant modulator of radiative changes under all-sky conditions, with cloud fraction alone contributing 42%‒63% to shortwave radiation variance. In contrast, the clear-sky analysis unmasks a definitive anthropogenic fingerprint. Land surface alterations and aerosol loading became the primary drivers of shortwave radiation changes, while greenhouse gases, particularly a strong tropospheric ozone signal over the Malay Archipelago, emerged as powerful longwave warming agents. By separating the powerful radiative signature of natural monsoon-driven variability from underlying anthropogenic pressures, this study provides a mechanistic and quantitative baseline for understanding and projecting climate dynamics in one of the world's most critical regions.
Keywords:
Earth’s radiation budget
Climate change
Land use change
Anthropogenic pressure
South and Southeast Asia
Climate forcing
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5.2
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706
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3.0K
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