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Applying a Multisector Scenario Framework to Evaluate Past and Future Public Surface Water Supply Infrastructure Strategies in Texas
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DOI：10.1029/2025EF006859.png)
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Abstract
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Facilitating decisions over future infrastructure transitions benefits from understanding past strategies to inform future scenario development. Here, we apply a scenario-based indicator framework to generate plausible, spatially explicit future Public Water Supply Infrastructure (PWSI) alternatives. We then evaluate past and future proposed strategies for surface water use relative to the diversity of available options in Texas. Indicators include water availability, quality, energy requirements, treatment, and infrastructure investment costs, each representing key dimensions of hydrologic performance, cost, and efficiency across Texas water systems. We examine the specific scenario space occupied by past PWSI investments relative to the full diversity of natural surface water infrastructures (free-flowing streams) and human-modified resources (waterbodies and reservoirs) available for use. We compare available options with evolving state planning priorities, particularly as reflected in the Texas Water Development Board's projections for new major reservoirs. We find that a full diversity of distributed PWSI options is present, representing diverse Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, but under-utilized, specifically for free-flowing streams. The diversity of SSP scenarios is bounded by clear, distinct tradeoffs among indicators and costs, for example, high water availability is rarely accompanied by high water quality. In the past, humans utilized a narrow margin of this diversity by relying on centralized infrastructure that maximizes reservoir storage capacity or high-water availability in large rivers, while also prioritizing sources with higher water quality at the expense of high infrastructure costs. Our approach aligns closely with state planning priorities, suggesting that future state strategies are pursuing more distributed, cost-effective approaches across more diverse sources to meet future demand, perhaps out of necessity. This demonstrates how scenarios are translated into tangible, real-world applications and assists in understanding tradeoffs among scenario alternatives to inform future applications and discover new scenarios.
Keywords:
public water supply infrastructure
hydrologic region
shared socioeconomic pathways
multisector dynamic approach
integrated approach
indicator-scenario framework
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