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CAN OBSERVERS PREDICT TRUSTWORTHINESS?
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DOI：10.1162/REST_a_00146.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
We investigate whether experimental subjects can predict behavior in a prisoner's dilemma played on a TV show. Subjects report probabilistic beliefs that a player cooperates, before and after the players communicate. Subjects correctly predict that women and players who make a voluntary promise are more likely to cooperate. They are able to distinguish truth from lies when a player is asked about her intentions by the host. Subjects are to some extent able to predict behavior; their beliefs are 7 percentage points higher for cooperators than for defectors. We also study their Bayesian updating. Beliefs do not satisfy the martingale property and display mean reversion.
Keywords:
COOPERATION
DECEPTION
EVOLUTION
JUDGMENT
PROMISES
BEHAVIOR
CATCH
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