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Characterising fine-scale habitat associations for range expanding species with limited data: a case study on the West Nile Virus vector, Culex modestus
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DOI：10.1002/oik.12067.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
The ecological and epidemiological consequences of species expanding into new areas are growing concomitantly with climate change. Those aiming to monitor species expanding in range must make optimal use of finite resources to deliver effective surveillance capable of detecting new incursions and range expansions. Statistical models can be used to characterise suitable climatic niches of species that – when combined with climate projections – can forecast possible future species ranges. However, many species have fine-scale environmental requirements that limit where they can be found within this climatic envelope. Range expansion events are rare, making it challenging to contrast where the species has been found with where is known to be inhospitable. Those monitoring range-expanding species must be able to make informed decisions of where to sample for these species next even with a paucity of data. In this paper, we present a method – using principles adapted from ecological niche factor analysis – that characterises the fine-scale habitat associations of an expanding species without relying on abundant data or pseudo-absence generation. This inference is enabled by high-resolution satellite imagery, which provides greater precision in defining fine-scale habitats. We present an application of our method to the larval habitats of the mosquito Culex modestus, a potential West Nile Virus vector species which is expanding its range within the UK. The method characterises the multivariate correlation between environmental variables at the limited number of sites where the larvae have been found in order to describe the complex, interacting relationships that govern its distribution. We contrasted against country-wide characterisations of these variables to define a niche specific of aquatic habitats for Culex modestus larvae. We hope this application demonstrates that useful insights can be delivered to those aiming to manage vectors expanding in range without an abundance of presence and absence data.
Keywords:
Bayesian statistics
Culex modestus
ecological niche
habitat suitability
vector surveillance
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