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Characterization of historical and future preferential zones for viticulture in Europe
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DOI：10.3389/fsufs.2026.1894106.png)
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Abstract
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Climate change is modifying the thermal and hydric conditions that shape European viticulture in established wine-growing regions. A rule-based bioclimatic assessment approach was developed to evaluate historical and future viticultural preferability across Europe. Climatic thresholds were derived from vineyards within Protected Designation of Origin regions and complemented with values reported in the literature. Selected thermal and hydric indices were calculated from CHELSA climate data at a spatial resolution of 30 arc-seconds (~1 km). Future conditions were assessed for three periods; three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; and a five-model ensemble. For each period and scenario; European regions were classified as preferable only when all selected indices remained within the defined thresholds. Spatial convergence across periods and scenarios was also evaluated to identify areas with persistent viticultural preferability. The projections show a marked redistribution of viticultural preferability across Europe. Losses increase in southern regions; particularly in the Iberian Peninsula; southern Italy; and Greece; mainly because of excessive heat and dryness. In contrast; northern and north-western Europe show substantial gains as current thermal constraints weaken. Central Europe presents mixed patterns of persistence and expansion. The convergence analysis confirms consistent losses in the south and gains at higher latitudes. This approach provides a basis for identifying areas where viticultural conditions are likely to persist; decline; or emerge under climate change. Areas classified as non-preferable may still remain viable through adaptation; although they are likely to require greater management effort. The results support long-term spatial planning; vineyard investment; and adaptation strategies in European viticulture.
Keywords:
climate change
adaptation
Europe
viticulture
bioclimatic zoning
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