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Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century

delete2026-03-05
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PRE
AI
M
Marc Grünig *
W
Werner Rammer
C
Cornelius Senf
K
Katharina Albrich
F
Frédéric André
A
Andrey L. D. Augustynczik
M
M. Baumann
F
Friedrich J. Bohn
M
M. Bouwman
H
Harald Bugmann
A
Alessio Collalti
I
Irina Cristal
D
Daniela Dalmonech
F
François de Coligny
L
Laura Dobor
C
Christina Dollinger
J
Josep María Espelta
D
David I. Forrester
J
Jordi García-Gonzalo
J
José Ramón González‐Olabarria
U
Ulrike Hiltner
T
Tomáš Hlásny
J
Juha Honkaniemi
N
Nica Huber
M
Mathieu Jonard
A
Anna Maria Jönsson
G
Georges Künstler
F
Fredrik Lagergren
M
Marcus Lindner
M
Marco Mina
C
Christine Moos
X
Xavier Morin
B
Bart Muys
G
G.J. Nabuurs
M
Mats Nieberg
M
Marco Patacca
M
Mikko Peltoniemi
C
Christopher Reyer
M
Mart‐Jan Schelhaas
I
Ilié Storms
D
Dominik Thom
M
Maude Toïgo
R
Rupert Seidl
DOI:10.1126/science.adx6329delete
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Abstract

Abstract

En 中文
Climate change has already increased the occurrence of wildfires, convective storms, and bark beetle outbreaks, all of which are major drivers of tree mortality in forests. However, the future trajectories of these disturbances are unknown, particularly because they can interact with one another. Grünig et al. projected changes in disturbance rates and tree mortality across Europe in the 21st century under three climate change scenarios. They predicted an increase in disturbance-induced mortality especially that due to wildfires. These changes will lead to a decline in old forests and an increase in young forests, particularly in the Mediterranean, with implications for carbon sequestration and biodiversity. —Bianca Lopez
Keywords:
climate change
forest disturbances
tree mortality
wildfire
biodiversity

Journal

Science cover
Science
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45.8
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