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Climate-Driven Long-Term Increase in Tidal Wetland Gross Primary Production in the United States
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DOI：10.1029/2026GB009093.png)
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Abstract
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Tidal wetlands are critical carbon sinks, yet their response to ongoing environmental change remains uncertain across the conterminous United States. To address this gap, we quantified long-term trends and interannual variability in tidal wetland gross primary production (GPP; g C m−2 d−1) using a 20-year (2001–2020) satellite-based data set. We also examined regional differences and the relative influence of climate drivers versus vegetation canopy on gross primary productivity (GPP) dynamics. At the continental scale, GPP increased by approximately 6% over two decades, with the strongest gains in the South Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico regions. Gulf wetlands exhibited the highest productivity, while Pacific and northern Atlantic wetlands were substantially lower, reflecting climatic gradients. Decomposition analysis indicates that rising shortwave radiation and air temperature are the primary drivers of productivity increases, outweighing declines in vegetative canopy coverage and apparent greenness. Interannual variability was modest overall but greatest in the Western Gulf, where episodic disturbances such as hurricanes and drought exert strong influence. These findings suggest that recent productivity gains are driven largely by climate forcing rather than vegetation changes, underscoring the need to incorporate climatic drivers into tidal wetland carbon models and management strategies.
Keywords:
tidal wetlands
gross primary production
CONUS
carbon cycle
remote sensing
coastal ecosystems
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