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Climate impacts on Pinus tabuliformis growth: 3-PG projections and sensitivity in Beijing; northern China
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DOI：10.3389/ffgc.2026.1841902.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Pinus tabuliformis (Chinese pine) is the dominant conifer species in northern China; comprising over 87% of nursery-raised plantings and covering a significant portion of the country’s 79.54 million hectares of timberland. It plays a central role in China’s “Carbon Double” policy; which aims to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. However; the long-term response of this species’ growth to changing climatic conditions in the semi-arid temperate zone remains insufficiently quantified. In this study; we applied the process-based 3-PG model to simulate the growth and biomass dynamics of P. tabuliformis under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Model calibration integrated field biophysical measurements and climate data from 24 urban/suburban forest parks in Beijing. Independent validation of plot-level growth was performed on 35 re-measured plots from the 8th National Forest Inventory (2009); enabling direct comparison of 14-year growth increments. Morris sensitivity analysis (μ*; σ) identified FR as the most influential parameter. Segmented regression established a significant breakpoint at FR ≈ 0.60 (p < 0.001); above which marginal gains diminished. A secondary inflection at 0.71 was not statistically significant (p = 0.23). The calibrated model showed strong agreement with observed values for diameter at breast height (DBH; R2 > 0.91; RMSE = 1.02 cm); stem biomass (R2 > 0.95; RMSE = 2.30 t·ha−1) and foliage biomass (R2 > 0.98; RMSE = 0.39 t·ha−1). Future projections revealed divergent trajectories. Under RCP 8.5; biomass increased ~40% by 2070 but declined ~30% by 2; 100 under intensifying warming and drought stress. Under RCP 4.5; more stable biomass gains of ~22% sustained through 2060. These results demonstrate that current afforestation practices risk maladaptation unless they incorporate (1) FR-informed thinning protocols; (2) selection of drought-tolerant provenances; and (3) integrated water-conservation measures. To our knowledge; this study provides the first empirically parameterized and validated 3-PG framework for P. tabuliformis in northern China; offering process-based evidence to align Chinese pine management with national carbon-neutrality goals under climate stress.
Keywords:
Beijing
climate change impact
northern China
biomass dynamics
RCP scenarios
Chinese pine
3-PG model
Journal
F
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3.2
Papers:
373
Citations:
4.0K
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