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Climate-informed stock-recruitment models identify potential environmental links for commercial fish stocks
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DOI：10.1111/faf.70109.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Several studies have demonstrated non-stationarity in marine fish maximum per capita recruitment rate, which may be linked to regional environmental drivers. Exploring relationships between environmental drivers and time-varying recruitment rate will provide insight into recruitment processes, and suggest how fisheries managers may adapt biological reference points and adjust harvest-control rules in response to changes in the ecosystem state. To test for significant effects on the recruitment rate of 48 commercial United States fish stocks with nonstationary per-capita recruitment, environmental indices from two Atlantic and three Pacific regions are incorporated into a state-space dynamic Ricker stock-recruitment model. We developed two model variants for incorporating climate into the state-space model, one based on the climate variable itself and the other on its rate of change. Simulation tests indicated that if the true system has a climate driver, most of the time a climate-enhanced model will detect it. However, the different model variants may have similar statistical support, such that model selection may be unable to distinguish the ecological hypotheses of the climate-recruitment interaction. For 35 (73%) of the true stock time series, at least one environmental variable was identified as nominally significant for improving on the non-climate dynamic model. The simulation results indicate that the identified environmental indices likely do impact recruitment of the given stocks, even if the form of that effect may not be clearly identified. Our results can now support more detailed stock-specific analyses of fisheries dynamics, climate drivers, model specification and ultimately management action in the future.
Keywords:
environmental drivers
fisheries population dynamics
Kalman filter
Peterman productivity method
stock-recruitment modelling
time-varying maximum recruitment rate
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