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Climate shocks; livelihoods and household food security in rural Mozambique: evidence from Guijá District
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DOI：10.3389/fsufs.2026.1872538.png)
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Abstract
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Climate change is intensifying food insecurity across the globe; hitting harder drought-prone rural areas of low-income countries. Yet; limited empirical evidence explains how climate exposure; household adaptive capacity and everyday making of a living jointly shape food security at the local level. This study examines the patterns and determinants of household food security in Guijá district; Mozambique; one of the country’s most climate-stressed regions due to recurrent droughts; floods; erratic rainfall and high temperatures. These climate shocks pose serious threats to agriculture-based livelihoods; food security; water access and overall household welfare particularly because the majority of the population depends on small-scale; rain-fed subsistence farming as their primary economic activity. Using cross-sectional survey data from 407 households; food security was assessed through the Food Consumption Score (FCS); complemented by the Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) and the Household Hunger Scale (HHS). The study applied Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) and K-Means Cluster Analysis to explore the interplay of livelihoods; climate factors and food security outcomes. Descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression identified key determinants of food security; while cluster analysis revealed distinct livelihood patterns. Results indicate that 67.6% of households were food insecure; with notable spatial disparities across communities. Although female-headed households experienced higher levels of food insecurity; gender was not a statistically significant determinant after controlling for socioeconomic and environmental factors. Instead; food security was strongly associated to income levels; income diversification; market access; land-use change and ownership of productive assets particularly motorcycles. Irregular rainfall significantly reduced the likelihood of food security. Four household typologies emerged; with food security probabilities ranging from 0.43 among market-integrated households to 0.09 among wage-dependent households. These findings highlight the need for targeted; livelihood-sensitive and climate-resilient interventions focused on promoting livelihood diversification; improving market and financial access; strengthening climate-smart land management and supporting household asset accumulation for enhanced resilience.
Keywords:
climate change
livelihoods
food insecurity
Mozambique
adaptive capacity
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