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Coal phaseout undermines co-benefits of fly ash as a clinker substitute
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DOI：10.1016/j.xinn.2026.101496.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Replacing clinker with fly ash is a critical CO2 mitigation pathway for cement clinker plants (CCPs), yet this potential may be adversely affected by the phaseout of coal-fired power plants (CFPPs). Here, we draw upon a high-resolution infrastructure-level database encompassing approximately 4,460 CFPP units and 1,540 CCP production lines in China. Through industrial symbiosis simulations and cost-benefit analyses, we evaluate the mitigation performance and adaptation costs of CCPs under various future CFPP retirement and flexible dispatch pathways. Our findings indicate that CCPs could reduce CO2 emissions by 141 Mt and generate 8.2 billion CNY in economic benefits through clinker substitution with fly ash. However, under the 1.5 °C warming target by 2050, the coal power phaseout would undermine these benefits by more than 80%. While deploying adaptation measures could offset for 57 Mt of CO2 losses, these measures incur an additional 5 billion CNY in costs for CCPs, potentially turning net economic benefits into an estimated loss of 17 billion CNY. Developing systematic and collaborative decarbonization strategies for highly-connected sectors is essential to mitigate transition risks and improve decision-making effectiveness.
Keywords:
coal-fired power plant
cement plant
infrastructure symbiosis
clinker substitution
fly ash
low-carbon transition risk
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