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Combined threats of land use, climate change and nitrogen deposition to global vascular plant diversity
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DOI：10.1016/j.gecco.2026.e04307.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Vascular plants are threatened by multiple anthropogenic pressures. While the local effects of these pressures on plants are relatively well studied, much less is known about the implications for global plant diversity. Here, we quantify the combined threats of land use, climate change and nitrogen deposition to global vascular plant diversity by upscaling the impacts of these pressures from the local to the global scale. First, we assessed losses of local plant species richness due to contemporary land use, climate change and nitrogen deposition at a spatial resolution of 10 arc-seconds, combining pressure-response relationships based on empirical data with the global distribution of these pressures. Next, we upscaled local species loss to ecoregion-level extinction threat with a multi-pressure species-area relationship model. Finally, we upscaled regional to global extinction threats based on regional endemism richness. We estimate that 23.3% of the vascular plant species are threatened with global extinction, with 57% of the total global extinction threat concentrated in 148 of the 816 ecoregions in the biomes Tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests, Temperate broadleaf and mixed forests, Mediterranean forests, woodlands and scrub, and Tropical and subtropical grasslands, savannas and shrub. Land use contributed the most to the global extinction threat (46%) followed by climate change (33%) and nitrogen deposition (21%). Our modelling approach identifies hotspots of extinction threat resulting from combined human pressures and distinguishes the contribution of each individual pressure. Our findings may inform decision-making concerned with the mitigation of pressures and the conservation of vascular plant diversity.
Keywords:
anthropogenic pressures
biodiversity
extinction threat
multiple stressors
species-area relationship
species richness
vascular plants
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