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Configuration analysis of coal mine accident causation: uncovering pathways, substitutions, and provincial heterogeneity in China
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DOI：10.1016/j.ress.2025.112122.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
The causes of coal mine accidents involve complex synergies among multiple factors, prevailing research often relies on static, single-factor paradigms, limiting insights for precision governance. To capture dynamic causal complexity, this study pioneers the integration of LDA topic modeling, the TOE framework, and dynamic QCA to map causal configurations. Analyzing fatal coal mine accident reports and provincial panel data from China’s coal-producing regions, key findings reveal: (1) The necessity of coal production for high-fatality outcomes demonstrates a significant declining trend, highlighting the dynamic evolution of accident causation. (2) Four core configuration paths leading to high fatality levels were identified.Within these paths, education level, safety investment, and coal production consistently acted as stable core conditions, while intelligentization level or economic level served as key peripheral conditions. Crucially, the analysis uncovers functional substitutability between intelligentization level and safety investment within their respective pathways, a novel finding indicating non-unique routes to risk mitigation. (3)While strong temporal effects were absent in configurations, a significant "case effect" attributable to provincial heterogeneity was captured. These findings provide a new perspective and foundation for precision governance of coal mine safety across diverse regions, moving beyond one-size-fits-all recommendations through configuration path differentiation and the observed provincial case effect.
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