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Creating a Smart Conditional Consensus Forecast
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AI
DOI：10.2469/faj.v64.n6.9.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
The study examined analyst forecasts of 26 macroeconornic statistics for August 1998 through March 2007. The four research questions were, (1) Does forecast accuracy persist? (2) What are the determinants of such persistence? (3) Do analysts who exhibit these characteristics make more accurate forecasts than the simple consensus? (4) Is a smart consensus that is based on individuals exhibiting these characteristics more accurate than the simple consensus? It was shown that analyst forecast accuracy persists and is determined by long-term past accuracy and the analyst's overall ability in forecasting all statistics.
Keywords:
SECURITY ANALYSTS
MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
INDIVIDUAL ANALYSTS
EARNINGS FORECASTS
ACCURACY
PERFORMANCE
BIAS
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