Data-driven approaches for runoff prediction using distributed data

Heechan Han

doi:10.1007/s00477-021-01993-3

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Data-driven approaches for runoff prediction using distributed data

2021-02-24

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Heechan Han

Ryan R. Morrison *

DOI：10.1007/s00477-021-01993-3

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Abstract

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Accurate rainfall-runoff modelling is particularly challenging due to complex nonlinear relationships between various factors such as rainfall characteristics, soil properties, land use, and temporal lags. Recently, with improvements to computation systems and resources, data-driven models have shown good performances for runoff forecasting. However, the relative performance of common data-driven models using small temporal resolutions is still unclear. This study presents an application of data-driven models using artificial neural network, support vector regression and long-short term memory approaches and distributed forcing data for runoff predictions between 2010 and 2019 in the Russian River basin, California, USA. These models were used to predict hourly runoff with 1-6 h of lead time using precipitation, soil moisture, baseflow and land surface temperature datasets provided from the North American Land Data Assimilation System. The predicted results were evaluated in terms of seasonal and event-based performance using various statistical metrics. The results showed that the long-short term memory and support vector regression models outperforms artificial neural network model for hourly runoff forecasting, and the predictive performance of the models was greater during the wet seasons compared to the dry seasons. In addition, a comparison of the data-driven model results with the National Water Model, a fully distributed physical-based hydrologic model, showed that the long-short term memory and support vector regression models provide comparable performance. The results demonstrate that data-driven models for hourly runoff forecasting are sufficiently predictive and useful in areas where observation systems are not available.

Keywords:

Data-driven models

Machine learning

National Water Model

Runoff prediction

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