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Decarbonising a transcontinental green shipping corridor under trade growth: a system dynamics analysis
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DOI：10.3389/fmars.2026.1920484.png)
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Abstract
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Decarbonising maritime transport is becoming increasingly challenging amid sustained global trade growth. This study develops a System Dynamics (SD) framework to evaluate a transcontinental green shipping corridor connecting Shanghai; Jebel Ali; and Koper. The model integrates five interconnected stages; including port operations; voyage emissions; alternative fuel production; bunkering infrastructure; and renewable energy deployment. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are modelled using a stock–flow approach incorporating alternative fuels (ammonia; methanol; and hydrogen); energy-efficiency technologies; infrastructure constraints; and feedback-driven adoption mechanisms. The results reveal a pronounced growth–decarbonization paradox. Although the simulated transition pathway combines 23 mitigation measures with approximately 86% adoption of alternative fuels; it does not achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Under an assumed annual traffic growth rate of 2.2%; baseline emissions increase by approximately 80%; progressively offsetting the benefits of technological and operational improvements. Voyage phases account for approximately 96% of total emission reductions; while the bunkering stage emerges as a critical enabling subsystem linking renewable energy generation; fuel production; and vessel fuel demand. The analysis further identifies infrastructure readiness; technology saturation; and declining marginal mitigation benefits as key constraints on long-term decarbonization performance. The findings demonstrate that green shipping corridors should be evaluated as integrated transport–energy systems rather than isolated transport routes. The proposed SD framework provides a transferable tool for analysing corridor-scale decarbonization pathways and supporting evidence-based maritime policy and infrastructure planning.
Keywords:
energy transition
system dynamics
maritime decarbonization
alternative fuels
green shipping corridors
feedback mechanisms
maritime transport growth
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