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Diagnosing the causal relationships between groundwater resource characteristics and socio-economic factors in the Heihe river basin, China
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DOI：10.1016/j.watcyc.2026.01.004.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Groundwater systems interact closely with socio-economic processes in arid basins. Quantifying these interactions requires spatial indicators that describe groundwater response and control mechanisms. This study maps high-resolution Groundwater Response Time (GRT) and Water Table Ratio (WTR) across the Heihe River Basin (HRB) using multi-source data. Results show an average GRT of 2.4 & times; 10(8) years. About 62 % of the HRB is recharge-controlled (WTR <1) and 38 % is topography-controlled (WTR >1). Both GRT and WTR increase with water table depth. Causal analysis using Geographical Convergent Cross Mapping (GCCM) identifies strong one-way causality from GRT to overall human modification (rho = 0.88) and ranching (rho = 0.80), and from WTR to both human modification (rho = 0.78) and ranching (rho = 0.68). Agriculture shows reverse causality with GRT (rho = 0.61), indicating irrigation-induced changes in groundwater response. Population correlates moderately with both GRT and WTR (rho = 0.55-0.56), while GDP exhibits weaker links. Comparison with global GRT/WTR maps shows that local hydrological variability is higher, reflecting finer-scale responses to land use and climate. The results demonstrate that groundwater regimes constrain socio-economic spatial organization, while agriculture can actively reshape groundwater memory in recharge-responsive zones. The framework provides a transferable approach for diagnosing socio-hydrological coupling and informing risk-stratified groundwater management across arid and semi-arid regions.
Keywords:
Groundwater response time
Water table ratio
Causal inference
Geographical convergent cross mapping
Anthropogenic modifications
Socio-hydrology
Heihe river basin
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