Diagnostic performance of artificial intelligence models for pulmonary nodule classification: a multi-model evaluation

Sarah K. Herber

doi:10.1007/s00330-025-11845-1

Diagnostic performance of artificial intelligence models for pulmonary nodule classification: a multi-model evaluation

10.1007/s00330-025-11845-1

2025-07-25

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Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related mortality. While early detection improves survival, distinguishing malignant from benign pulmonary nodules remains challenging. Artificial intelligence (AI) has been proposed to enhance diagnostic accuracy, but its clinical reliability is still under investigation. Here, we aimed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of AI models in classifying pulmonary nodules. This single-center retrospective study analyzed pulmonary nodules (4–30 mm) detected on CT scans, using three AI software models. Sensitivity, specificity, false-positive and false-negative rates were calculated. The diagnostic accuracy was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), with histopathology serving as the gold standard. Subgroup analyses were based on nodule size and histopathological classification. The impact of imaging parameters was evaluated using regression analysis. A total of 158 nodules (n = 30 benign, n = 128 malignant) were analyzed. One AI model classified most nodules as intermediate risk, preventing further accuracy assessment. The other models demonstrated moderate sensitivity (53.1–70.3%) but low specificity (46.7–66.7%), leading to a high false-positive rate (45.5–52.4%). AUC values were between 0.5 and 0.6 (95% CI). Subgroup analyses revealed decreased sensitivity (47.8–61.5%) but increased specificity (100%), highlighting inconsistencies. In total, up to 49.0% of the pulmonary nodules were classified as intermediate risk. CT scan type influenced performance (p = 0.03), with better classification accuracy on breath-held CT scans. AI-based software models are not ready for standalone clinical use in pulmonary nodule classification due to low specificity, a high false-negative rate and a high proportion of intermediate-risk classifications. Question How accurate are commercially available AI models for the classification of pulmonary nodules compared to the gold standard of histopathology? Findings The evaluated AI models demonstrated moderate sensitivity, low specificity and high false-negative rates. Up to 49% of pulmonary nodules were classified as intermediate risk. Clinical relevance The high false-negative rates could influence radiologists’ decision-making, leading to an increased number of interventions or unnecessary surgical procedures.

Keywords:

Artificial intelligence

Lung cancer

Pulmonary nodules

Computed tomography

Diagnostic accuracy

Diagnostic performance of artificial intelligence models for pulmonary nodule classification: a multi-model evaluation

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