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Distribution-dependent number preferences
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DOI：10.1017/esa.2025.10026.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
There is existing evidence that many individuals have preferences regarding selection of numbers in lottery games. Lottery data indicate that the percentage of players who choose their numbers, instead of having numbers randomly assigned, varies widely by lottery game. Differences in number selection mechanisms between games and an expected return maximization motive only present for parimutuel games are both reasons that can explain the variation. Differences in the payoff distributions between lottery games could also be contributing to the observed variation, a novel proposition. An experiment is designed to control for differences in number selection mechanisms and remove the expected return maximization motive, to test for the presence of distribution-dependent number preferences. Results indicate that 40% to 50% of subjects may display such preferences. It is therefore possible that distribution-dependent number preferences contribute to the empirical variation in number selection percentages in lottery games.
Keywords:
Choice over risk
illusion of control
lotteries
number preferences
C91
D81
D91
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J
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