Do solar panels spread like disease? Spatial diffusion and peer effects in residential photovoltaic adoption

2026-08-11

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Bruno Moreno Rodrigo de Freitas

DOI：10.1016/j.erss.2026.104920

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Does residential solar adoption spread through local interactions? This paper examines the spatial diffusion of residential photovoltaic (PV) systems using a novel high-resolution panel covering more than 2.6 million installations in Brazil through December 2024. I construct measures of exposure to nearby adoption across distance bands and estimate fixed-effects Poisson models that account for spatial dependence, temporal dynamics, and regional heterogeneity. The results show strong evidence of localized peer effects: adoption in nearby areas significantly increases the likelihood of new installations, with effects declining sharply with distance. At the same time, the negative effect of local saturation is consistent with an epidemic diffusion process in which adoption slows as the remaining market shrinks. These findings are robust to alternative spatial specifications and the inclusion of socioeconomic and tariff controls. Overall, the results highlight the importance of spatial interactions in shaping the diffusion of residential solar and provide new insights into the dynamics of low-carbon technology adoption.

Do solar panels spread like disease? Spatial diffusion and peer effects in residential photovoltaic adoption

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