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Dynamically downscaled future projections of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean across low to high emissions scenarios
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DOI：10.5194/os-22-1987-2026.png)
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Abstract
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Abstract. We used a high-resolution (1 / 12°) Modular Ocean Model version 6 implementation for the Northwest Atlantic Ocean (MOM6-NWA12) to dynamically downscale Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model version 4.1 (GFDL-ESM4.1) projections for the 21st century. Simulations were conducted under four different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 emission scenarios. MOM6-NWA12 accurately simulates the spatial patterns of sea surface temperature; salinity; and dynamic sea surface height (SSH) during the historical period. In particular; the Gulf Stream's strength; position; recirculation; and separation from the US East Coast are significantly improved in MOM6-NWA12 compared to the coarse-resolution GFDL-ESM4.1. Projected end-of-century warming varied strongly between scenarios; from ∼4 °C under prior “worst case” emissions scenarios (SSP-585); 2∼3 °C under intermediate scenarios (SSP-245; SSP-370) more consistent with current trajectories; to ∼1 °C under aggressive mitigation (SSP-126). Consistent with a significant weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation projected by GFDL-ESM4.1; MOM6-NWA12 shows a substantial volume transport reduction in the Western Boundary Current (WBC) system (i.e.; Yucatan Current; Florida Current; Antilles Current; and the Deep Western Boundary Current) toward the late 21st century (between 23 % and 38 %; varying by scenario). This projected weakening of the WBC system and the associated reduction in the coastal upwelling of cold; fresh subsurface waters lead to a significant increase in ocean temperature; salinity; and dynamic SSH along the US southeast and northeast Coasts; particularly in the South Atlantic Bight.
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