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Effects of global ocean warming and heatwaves on thermal safety margins of marine predator life stages
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DOI：10.1093/icesjms/fsag121.png)
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Abstract
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Increasing sea surface temperatures are predicted to affect the abundance and distribution of large marine predators. While numerous studies have explored the effects of temperature on adult life stages, little is known about the impact of warming on other life stages. This is troubling since the resilience of species to climate change will likely depend on the most sensitive life stage. Here, we employ Bayesian hierarchical models to assess how the life stages of seven billfish species (Istiophoridae and Xiphiidae) may be impacted by future ocean warming and marine heatwaves. We estimated species-and life-stage-specific thermal safety margins using observed global temperature data from animals in the wild, not critical upper thermal limits. In recent years, ocean temperature extremes have become more frequent, with a notable example being a 2023 marine heatwave that impacted much of the world’s oceans, setting record-high sea surface temperatures. We predicted the likelihood of thermal safety margins being exceeded during 2023 and under two contrasting climate change scenarios for the year 2100 (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Globally, thermal safety margins of billfish life stages were not exceeded during 2023 or climate warming scenarios, suggesting that the relatively broad thermal niches and wide spatial distribution of billfish life stages may help buffer populations from ocean warming. However, thermal safety margins were exceeded in discrete ocean regions and for critical spawning and larval life stages. Billfish life stages inhabiting the warmest tropical and equatorial regions were most at risk. Under SSP5-8.5, the realized thermal safety margins of blue marlin, sailfish, shortbill spearfish, swordfish, and striped marlin were exceeded by 1.2°C–4.0°C on known spawning grounds. These findings highlight the importance of integrating critical life stages into climate change research and mitigation planning for marine predators.
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