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Effects of rainfall on permafrost degradation in alpine desert regions of the Tibetan Plateau
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DOI：10.1038/s41612-026-01499-1.png)
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Abstract
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Rainfall is increasing across the Tibetan Plateau, yet its effects on permafrost in alpine desert regions remain poorly understood. Using a validated one-dimensional land-surface model for a representative site, we conducted idealized experiments to isolate the effects of summer rainfall (SR) and extreme rainfall (ER). Increasing SR mitigated long-term permafrost degradation. ER transiently accelerated degradation during the event year but produced a long-term mitigating effect thereafter. The short- and long-term effects of ER were both modulated by background SR: as SR increased, short-term acceleration first intensified and then weakened, whereas long-term mitigation progressively declined. These responses arose from rainfall-induced changes in the surface energy balance and soil hydrothermal processes. Overall, increased SR may partly mitigate warming-driven permafrost degradation in alpine desert regions, whereas ER imposes an additional timescale-dependent effect regulated by background SR. These findings provide a mechanistic basis for interpreting rainfall–permafrost interactions across different cold region environments.
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