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Elite Misperceptions in Foreign Policy
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DOI：10.1017/S0007123426101495.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Many models of domestic politics in international relations presume that political elites correctly perceive public preferences; even as a growing body of research in political behavior calls this assumption into question. Leveraging seven paired surveys of 4; 852 foreign policy elites and 13; 687 members of the American public from 2004–24 on twenty-four different questions; we show elites systematically misperceive public opinion in foreign policy; misperceiving the public as more isolationist and inward-looking than it actually is. We replicate this finding with a paired experiment showing that elites effectively underestimate the public’s responsiveness to cues from international organizations; and that elites with isolationist stereotypes underestimate public approval the most. These dynamics – which operate predominantly through stereotyping; rather than projection – have important implications for the study of political elites; public opinion about foreign policy; and efforts to test theoretical models of domestic politics in international relations using public opinion data alone.
Keywords:
Political elites
misperceptions
public opinion about foreign policy
political psychology
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