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Energy Modelling and Analysis for Sustainable Energy System of Somalia
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DOI：10.1002/ese3.70371.png)
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Abstract
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To ensure sustainable management of energy systems and maintain their benefits over time, it's imperative to prioritise science-based decision-making models throughout energy policy formulation and management processes, however, there is a significant research gap regarding energy modelling in Somalia. Therefore, this study developed three scenarios namely: Business as usual (BAU), Renewable Energy Technologies (RET) and visionary transition scenario (VTS) for supply side to fulfil projected demand. Considering, CO2 emissions resource potential, and techno-economic parameters. The novelty of this study lies in being the first comprehensive application of the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model for Somalia's electricity sector, integrating environmental, economic, and technological perspectives to support sustainable energy transition policies. Using the LEAP model, electricity demand was projected to increase from 133.2 GWh in 2020 to 1814.2 GWH in 2050, representing a growth of approximately 13.62 times compared to the base year, with an estimated annual rise of 1.88% under the BAU and other scenarios in this study. In RET scenario, where 70.3% of electricity generation comes from renewable sources, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are forecasted to be significantly lower compared to the BAU scenario in the year 2050, with emissions reaching 1406.3 thousand metric tonnes which is 1.56 times smaller than the BAU scenario for the same time. CO2 emissions in VTS scenario are estimated to be net-zero by 2050, driven by a complete shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. Greenhouse gas emissions for each scenario were evaluated using the IPCC Tier 1 methodology, and the economic assessment based on Net Present Value (NPV) analysis shows that the VTS scenario offers the most cost-effective and sustainable pathway. Overall, the findings highlight that expanding solar and wind energy can enable Somalia to achieve a low-carbon and economically resilient electricity system, offering crucial insights for national policymakers and future sustainable development planning.
Keywords:
energy systems
environment
environmental impact
policy
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