Enhancing human tsunami vulnerability analysis with open-source data and data-driven methodologies

Duygu Tufekci-Enginar

doi:10.1007/s11069-025-07863-3

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Enhancing human tsunami vulnerability analysis with open-source data and data-driven methodologies

2026-01-21

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Duygu Tufekci-Enginar *

Mehmet Lutfi Süzen

Ahmet Cevdet Yalçıner

DOI：10.1007/s11069-025-07863-3

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Abstract

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This study reassesses the human vulnerability to tsunamis by reducing dependency on high-resolution data and expert-driven evaluations. The original MeTHuVA (METU Metropolitan Tsunami Human Vulnerability Assessment) method, designed for metropolitan areas, is adapted to leverage open-source datasets and data-driven methodologies. The approach investigates three successive steps to reduce data and expert dependency in the Evacuation Resilience component of MeTHuVA method, (i) utilizing open-source data, (ii) applying value functions for parameter value transformation, and (iii) employing objective weighting methods to determine parameter importance. The calculations for the proposed methods are made for Bakirkoy district of Istanbul, where MeTHuVA method was previously successfully applied. The overall correlation between Evacuation Resilience maps derived from open-source and authoritative high-resolution datasets reached 0.71, supporting that the analyses performed using open-source data can provide a reasonably comparable alternative for vulnerability assessment in the selected study area. Additionally, value functions and objective weighting methods (Entropy, CRITIC, MEREC) effectively replicated expert-based processes, with resulted Evacuation Resilience maps achieving correlation coefficients above 0.9, indicating that data-driven methods can have a potential of providing scalable, adaptable, and reliable alternatives to expert-driven assessments. As coastal vulnerability increases due to rising sea levels, the growing availability and improving quality of open-source datasets and exploration of methods with lesser user interference offer promising pathways for more accessible and automated tsunami vulnerability and risk assessments that are suitable for diverse global contexts.

Keywords:

Tsunami

Vulnerability

Resilience

Open-source data

Data-driven

Objective weighting methods

MeTHuVA