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Ensemble-based projections of future climate extremes and their implications for photovoltaic power potential in China
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DOI：10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.011.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
In the context of global climate change, scientific projections of future photovoltaic power potential (PVpot) under extreme climate conditions are crucial for providing quantitative support for designing climate-resilient energy strategies. In this study, we developed a projection model based on the extreme forecast index (EFI) method using data from the sixth version of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC6). Applying this model, we investigated the variation in projected extreme climate conditions and associated PVpot during 2025–2060. Particular attention was paid to the critical dual-carbon transition window periods of 2030 and 2060. Benchmarked against the ERA5 reanalysis dataset, the MIROC6 historical dataset was found to be able to reasonably reproduce the climate for multiple variables, including 2 m temperature, 10 m wind speed (W10m) and surface-downwelling shortwave radiation (Rad). The spatial distribution and temporal evolution of EFI from 2025 to 2060 indicated the probability of extreme high-temperature events across most parts of China, with the probability showing a statistically significant increasing trend over the study period. The highest probability with EFI over 0.5 was found in Xizang and Yunnan Province, along with eastern Inner Mongolia and Northeast China. A significant declining trend in the probability of extreme high winds was projected for W10m across most of China (p < 0.05), except for parts of the west. Superimposed on this trend were marked interannual variations in the EFI’s spatial distribution. Notably, the probability of extreme winds was projected for Southern China and parts of Northeast China in 2030, whereas only weak signals of extreme wind remained in limited areas by 2060. Rad and PVpot featured predominantly negative EFI values between −0.4 and −0.1 across most parts of China, indicating non-negligible probabilities of extreme low solar radiation and PVpot conditions during the critical window periods of the dual-carbon goals. Temporal evolution analysis revealed that although EFI Rad and EFI PVpot remain negative, they show a significant increasing trend over time in most regions, suggesting a gradually weakening risk of extreme low PVpot towards 2060. The robustness of our findings was confirmed by sensitivity analysis of the distributions of model climate and EFIs across the model historical periods.
Keywords:
Photovoltaic power potential
Extreme climate
Ensemble projection
Extreme forecast index
Dual-carbon goals
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