ENSO probability forecasting by diffusing multi-intelligent models

doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2026.102838

ENSO probability forecasting by diffusing multi-intelligent models

2026-09-23

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DOI：10.1016/j.ocemod.2026.102838

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• We propose a diffusion-based ensemble member generating method. • Ensembles are generated by diffusing multi-Intelligent models predictions. • Ensembles generate more efficiently and have better uncertainty representation. • SSR and CRPS metrics are superior than others for ENSO probabilistic forecasting. • RMSE is reduced by 12% and Niño3.4 correlation is higher than others.

Keywords:

ENSO probability forecasting

Diffusion model

Ensemble members generation

Intelligent model

ENSO probability forecasting by diffusing multi-intelligent models

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