Entropy switch for Bayesian thermal network discovery

2026-07-26

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Sreehari Manikkan

Panagiota Karava

Ilias Bilionis *

DOI：10.1016/j.ijthermalsci.2026.111148

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Abstract

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• A novel representation of thermal resistance-capacitance network is proposed. • A thermodynamics-based entropy switch is introduced for Bayesian network discovery. • A combined prior on parameter and model form is adopted. • The framework is evaluated on a 4R3C synthetic example and two real building case studies.

Keywords:

RC network

Bayesian inference

Model form uncertainty

Network discovery

Uncertainty quantification

Multimodal posterior

Entropy switch for Bayesian thermal network discovery

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