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Environmental index selection and counterfactual simulation identify temporal shifts in dominant drivers of recruitment in Pacific saury (Cololabis saira)
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DOI：10.1093/icesjms/fsag135.png)
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Abstract
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The relative contributions of environmental changes and fishing pressure to fishery stock dynamics have long been controversial. To clarify whether and to what extent these factors influenced historical fishery stock dynamics, we developed a stock assessment model capable of incorporating information pertaining to both the environment and exploitation. A series of counterfactual simulations were conducted using this model. If removing one factor (e.g. environmental change) while keeping all others leads to significant changes in population dynamics, this provides evidence that the removed factor was a primary driver. We applied this framework to Pacific saury (Cololabis saira, Scomberesocidae) stock. Based on hindcasting performance and the biological plausibility of the associated strength of density dependence (steepness), we selected the temporally lagged North Pacific Gyre Oscillation index as the environmental information for the counterfactual simulations. The counterfactual simulations revealed a temporal shift in dominant drivers: environmental variability primarily shaped biomass dynamics before 2015, whereas fishing pressure became increasingly influential thereafter. These findings highlight not only the importance of fishing pressure control and environmental impacts on recruitment, but also the broader implication that dominant drivers of stock dynamics can shift over time, potentially generating misleading correlations if evaluated outside a population-dynamic framework.
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