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Environmental sustainability in belt and road economies: quantile GMM STIRPAT evidence on the roles of trade, digitalization, renewable energy, innovation, urbanization, and human development
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DOI：10.1007/s10668-026-07999-7.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
The stress on environmental systems of the involved economies has increased due to the fast rate of economic integration encouraged by the Belt and Road Initiative. The massive infrastructural spending, intensifying trade movement, and quickening urbanisation have simultaneously increased the energy consumption and the carbon emissions. At the same time, the development of digital technologies, the growth of renewable-energy, and human development present some opportunities to decrease the negative impact on the environment. Following this, the understanding of the interaction of these combined economic, technological, and social drivers on the environmental sustainability is one of the major concerns of policy and research. The paper addresses that issue by finding out the impact of trade openness, digitalisation, renewable energy, research and development, urbanisation, and human development on the environmental sustainability of Belt and Road economies based on an extended STIRPAT model. This study examines environmental sustainability in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) economies by integrating trade, digitalization, renewable energy, research effort, urbanization, and human development into an extended STIRPAT framework. It uses annual data for 57 BRI countries over 2000–2022 and three indicators of environmental performance: greenhouse gas emissions, carbon intensity, and load capacity factor. Trade openness, ICT use, renewable energy consumption, R&D expenditure, urbanization, and the Human Development Index capture key economic, technological, and social drivers. The empirical strategy applies second-generation panel tests to address cross-sectional dependence and nonstationarity, and then employs Westerlund’s cointegration test to confirm long-run links. Quantile Generalized Method of Moments (Q GMM) estimates heterogeneous effects across the conditional distribution of environmental indicators and addresses endogeneity. Interaction terms for trade with renewables, ICT with renewables, R&D with renewables, and urbanization with human development capture conditional effects. Results show that trade openness and renewable energy use reduce emissions and carbon intensity, with stronger effects in high emission quantiles. ICT and R&D increase emissions at lower quantiles but support lower carbon intensity and higher ecological capacity as countries move to higher quantiles, reflecting a shift toward cleaner technological structures. Urbanization tends to raise emissions, while higher human development weakens this effect and improves environmental outcomes. The findings support a quantile-specific policy mix that combines green trade, digital and R&D strategies, renewable expansion, and human development to align BRI growth with climate and ecological goals. Extends the STIRPAT framework to include trade, digitalization, renewable energy, research effort, urbanization, and human development for 57 BRI economies. Uses second generation panel methods and panel quantile GMM on annual data for 2000–2022 to capture distribution sensitive effects. Shows that trade openness and renewable energy use lower greenhouse gas emissions and carbon intensity, with stronger gains in high emitting countries. Finds that digitalization and research effort raise emissions at low quantiles but support lower carbon intensity at higher quantiles. Reveals that urbanization worsens environmental outcomes, while higher human development softens this effect and improves ecological capacity across the distribution.
Keywords:
Environmental sustainability
Belt and Road Initiative
Greenhouse gas emissions
Carbon intensity
Renewable energy
Digitalization
GMM
STIRPAT model
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4.2
Papers:
945
Citations:
2.3W
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