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Estimates of SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Population Immunity After the COVID-19 Pandemic in Austria: Analysis of National Wastewater Data
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DOI：10.1093/infdis/jiaf054.png)
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Abstract
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Background Postpandemic surveillance data on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections may help inform future public health policies regarding severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing, vaccinations, or other COVID-19 measures. We estimate the total SARS-CoV-2 infections in Austria after the end of the pandemic from wastewater data and utilize these estimates to calculate the average national levels of SARS-CoV-2 infection protection and COVID-19 death protection.Methods We estimated the total SARS-CoV-2 infections in Austria after the end of the pandemic (5 May 2023, per World Health Organization) up to May 2024 from wastewater data using a previously published model. These estimates were used in an agent-based model (ABM) to estimate average national levels of SARS-CoV-2 infection protection and COVID-19 death protection, based on waning immunity estimates of infections and vaccination in previous literature.Results We estimate approximately 3.2 million infections between 6 May 2023 and 23 May 2024, with a total of 17.8 million infections following 12 May 2020. The ABM estimates that the national average death protection was approximately 82% higher in May 2024 than before the pandemic. This represents a relative decrease of 8% since May 2023. It also shows that 95% of people in Austria were infected with SARS-CoV-2 at least once by May 2024. National infection protection remained relatively low after the onset of Omicron.Conclusions These findings should be considered for public health decisions on SARS-CoV-2 testing practices and vaccine booster administrations. Wastewater estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Austria show strong COVID-19 death protection despite declining vaccinations, with only a small decrease in protection levels a year after the pandemic's official end.
Keywords:
SARS-CoV-2
COVID-19
wastewater
immunization
nationwide
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