Explaining Differences in Voting Patterns across Voting Domains Using Hierarchical Bayesian Models

Erin Lipman

doi:10.1017/pan.2025.10014

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Explaining Differences in Voting Patterns across Voting Domains Using Hierarchical Bayesian Models

2026-03-28

Erin Lipman

Scott Moser

Abel Rodríguez *

DOI：10.1017/pan.2025.10014

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Abstract

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Spatial voting models are widely used in political science to analyze legislators’ preferences and voting behavior. Traditional models assume that legislators’ ideal points are static across different types of votes. This article extends the Bayesian spatial voting model to incorporate hierarchical Bayesian methods; allowing for the identification of covariates that explain differences in legislators’ ideal points across voting domains. We apply this model to procedural and final passage votes in the U.S. House of Representatives from the 93rd through 113th Congresses. Our findings indicate that legislators in the minority party and those representing moderate constituencies are more likely to exhibit different ideal points between procedural and final passage votes. This research advances the methodology of ideal point estimation by simultaneously scaling ideal points and explaining variation in these points; providing a more nuanced understanding of legislative voting behavior.

Keywords:

roll call votes

hierarchical model

U.S. House of Representatives

spatial voting models

Bayesian analysis

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