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Extreme Temporal Clustering of Solar Flares in AR 13663/13664: Magnetic Topology and Recurrence Time in May 2024
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DOI：10.1016/j.asr.2026.04.125.png)
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Abstract
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Solar Cycle 25’s most extreme episode occurred in early May 2024 when two magnetically complex active regions (AR 13663, AR 13664) generated 17 X-class flares in two weeks, driving G5 geomagnetic storms unseen since 2003. Using SDO/HMI SHARP vector magnetic indices and GOES/XRS soft X-ray data, we characterize flare recurrence times, magnetic evolution, and geomagnetic response. AR 13663 displayed concentrated activity (peak: 18 flares on May 4, median recurrence time 1.2 h), while AR 13664 exhibited sustained multi-peaked productivity (13 flares on May 10, median recurrence time 1.6 h). Critically, peak X-ray flux and recurrence time are decoupled ( ρ < 0.25), indicating that flare waiting times are controlled by polarity inversion line (PIL) topology and spatial distribution of magnetic shear rather than individual event energetics. A threshold of the SHARP parameter SHRGT45 (fraction of pixels with magnetic shear angle exceeding 45∘) > 40% marks transitions into hyper-productive regimes (>10 flares/day). Comparison with 2003 (AR 10486) and 2017 (AR 12673) extremes shows that May 2024 represents a new extremal type: record regions (4253 MH) sustaining dense flare sequences. These findings emphasize PIL complexity as a primary predictor of flare cadence, with implications for space weather forecasting.
Keywords:
Solar Flares
Recurrence Time Distribution
Polarity Inversion Line (PIL) Topology
SHARP Indices
Space Weather
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