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Return
Factor Timing
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PRE
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DOI：10.1093/rfs/hhaa017.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
The optimal factor timing portfolio is equivalent to the stochastic discount factor. We propose and implement a method to characterize both empirically. Our approach imposes restrictions on the dynamics of expected returns, leading to an economically plausible SDF. Market-neutral equity factors are strongly and robustly predictable. Exploiting this predictability leads to substantial improvement in portfolio performance relative to static factor investing. The variance of the corresponding SDF is larger, is more variable over time, and exhibits different cyclical behavior than estimates ignoring this fact. These results pose new challenges for theories that aim to match the cross-section of stock returns.
Keywords:
CROSS-SECTION
STOCK RETURNS
SMART MONEY
GROWTH
RISK
CONSUMPTION
INFORMATION
INVESTMENT
VOLATILITY
ARBITRAGE
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