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Factors Behind Change in Extremes: Change in Precipitation Is Dominated by Its Variability Whereas Change in Temperature by Its Mean
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DOI：10.1029/2025JD045639.png)
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Abstract
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Warming-induced changes in the hydrological cycle have led to more frequent and intensified hydroclimatic extremes, which may result from a shift in either mean or variability, or a combination thereof. This study considers daily precipitation and maximum/minimum temperature data from the entire Indian mainland to analyze the past and future changes in extremes through a probability-based change index. Results indicate that the increase in temperature extremes is mainly dominated by the increase in mean temperature, whereas the increase in precipitation extremes is dominated by the increased variability, as evidenced from both observations and future projections. Changes in these extremes are projected to be more intense and widespread in the future. By 2076–2100, more than half of India is projected to see a two-fold increase in the variability of monsoonal precipitation extremes compared to 1996–2020, under the SSP5-8.5. For the same scenario, both maximum and minimum temperature extremes are expected to rise three-fold by 2050 relative to 1996–2020, especially in southern regions. Notably, a decline in temperature variability is projected across many parts of the country, potentially constraining the extent of future increases in extremes despite rising mean temperature. Historically, a notable increase in maximum temperature extremes is observed in the western regions, whereas minimum temperature extremes have shown significant increases in eastern India. Meanwhile, precipitation extremes are intensified across southern and western India, while declined over the northern Indo-Gangetic Plains and northeastern regions due to reduced mean precipitation.
Keywords:
precipitation extremes
temperature extremes
CMIP6
mean
variability
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