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Fairness-Aware Optimization in Spatio-Temporal Epidemic Data Mining: A Graph-Augmented Temporal Fusion Transformer
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DOI：10.3390/math14071179.png)
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Abstract
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Modeling the complex spatio-temporal dynamics of infectious diseases presents a significant computational challenge due to heterogeneous regional interactions, high-dimensional multimodal data streams, and the critical need for algorithmic fairness. This paper proposes a novel computational framework that unifies graph-based spatio-temporal forecasting, anomaly detection, and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) into a single mathematical architecture. The predictive backbone employs a graph-augmented Temporal Fusion Transformer to capture non-linear temporal dependencies and spatial disease propagation. By formalizing regional topology and mobility flows as a weighted mathematical graph, the model systematically integrates structured epidemiological counts, continuous environmental covariates, and digital trace signals. To address algorithmic bias, we formulate a fairness-aware optimization problem by embedding a specific regularization term into the training objective, which mathematically penalizes disparities in true-positive rates across diverse socio-demographic strata. Furthermore, the numerical outputs and anomaly scores are processed by a large language model equipped with hybrid dense and sparse retrieval to generate interpretable, computationally grounded decision support. Extensive experiments on a longitudinal dataset comprising 62 administrative regions over 260 weeks validate the mathematical robustness of the proposed framework. The graph-augmented architecture improved forecasting accuracy by up to 24% and anomaly detection F1 scores by over 6% compared to state-of-the-art deep learning baselines, while the fairness-regularized loss function reduced the maximum subgroup recall gap by more than 50%. These findings demonstrate that predictive accuracy and algorithmic fairness can be jointly optimized, providing a rigorous computational methodology for spatio-temporal epidemic modeling and AI-driven surveillance.
Keywords:
spatio-temporal forecasting
artificial intelligence
mathematical modeling
decision support
health informatics
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