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Feedback Loops in Rural Depopulation
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DOI：10.1111/gean.70027.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Rural population decline is a persistent issue that has been observed for many decades. Informed by the notion of feedback in complex systems, this paper delves into the intricate dynamics of depopulation in a rural region in Denmark, using a novel methodology based on proven concepts that identify key demographic characteristics and trends at a granular level. The methodology leverages granular, address-level demographic data, hot spot analysis, and regionalization to identify areas with significant depopulation. The “three burdens of depopulation” are explored: fertility and reproduction potential, skewed age distribution and dependency ratio, and migration patterns. It is observed that the absence of “nuclear families” and a decrease in the proportion of females aged 15–49 and children aged 0–17, are strongly correlated with depopulation. It is further demonstrated that the depopulation trends are comparable across the rural subregions of the municipality, suggesting that these trends are not isolated incidents but part of a larger, overarching pattern.
Keywords:
complex systems
depopulation
geographic information systems
hypothesis testing
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