Forecasting Students' Academic Performance in Educational Data Using Machine Learning Techniques

Al-Shanableh, Najah

doi:10.4018/IJICTE.399756

Forecasting Students' Academic Performance in Educational Data Using Machine Learning Techniques

2026-01-01

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DOI：10.4018/IJICTE.399756

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This study benchmarks multiple machine learning models to predict student academic performance. The research analyzes data from students in mathematics and Portuguese language courses, examining the relationship between various factors and academic performance. The benchmark implementation includes data preprocessing, exploratory data analysis, feature engineering, model training, and hyperparameter tuning for both regression (predicting final grades) and classification (predicting pass/ fail outcomes) tasks. The findings demonstrate that ensemble methods, particularly gradient boosting models, outperform other algorithms with root mean square error of 3.34 for regression and F1 score of 0.88 for classification after hyperparameter tuning. Feature importance analysis reveals that past failures, alcohol consumption, study time, and parent education level are among the most influential predictors of academic performance. The results provide valuable insights for educational stakeholders to implement targeted interventions for at-risk students and improve overall academic outcomes.

Keywords:

Educational Data Mining (EDM)

Knowledge Discovery

Classification

Feature Extraction

Data Mining

Prediction

Clustering

Student's Behavior

Student's Academic Performance

Personalized Learning

Forecasting Students' Academic Performance in Educational Data Using Machine Learning Techniques

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