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Forecasting using random subspace methods

delete2019-04-01
delete15
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OA
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T
Tom Boot *
D
Didier Nibbering
DOI:10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.01.009delete
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Abstract

Abstract

En 中文
Random subspace methods are a new approach to obtain accurate forecasts in high dimensional regression settings. Forecasts are constructed by averaging over forecasts from many submodels generated by random selection or random Gaussian weighting of predictors. This paper derives upper bounds on the asymptotic mean squared forecast error of these strategies, which show that the methods are particularly suitable for macroeconomic forecasting. An empirical application to the FRED -MD data confirms the theoretical findings, and shows random subspace methods to outperform competing methods on key macroeconomic indicators. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords:
Dimension reduction
Forecasting
Random subspace
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Journal

Journal of Econometrics cover
Journal of Econometrics
IF:
4
Papers:
5.2K
Citations:
3.0W

Organization

M
Monash University
Scholars:
5.4W
Papers: 5.4W
Citations: 79
U
University of Groningen
Scholars:
4.4W
Papers: 4.3W
Citations: 5.9W
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