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From satellite-based hydrological measurements to farmer perceptions: reconciling water scarcity indicators in the Brazilian Amazon
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DOI：10.1007/s10668-026-07837-w.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Shifting rainfall patterns are expected to reshape water availability and the viability of rainfed farming across tropical agricultural frontiers, yet adaptation depends on whether these changes are perceived locally. In the Brazilian Amazon, rainfall trends have been documented in meteorological and satellite records, but household-level evidence on how farmers perceive drought and rainfall change—and which hydrometeorological indicators best align with those perceptions—remains limited. We compare farmer-reported drought experience and perceived rainfall change with satellite-based precipitation data for 1,004 farm households in Rondônia, Brazil. Using probit models, we test which rainfall metrics are most salient to perceptions along four dimensions: seasonal versus annual measures, extreme events versus gradual trends, recent conditions versus longer-term change, and absolute versus relative indicators. We find broad agreement between satellite-based estimates and farmer perceptions, including the direction of change, suggesting that rainfall shifts documented for the Amazon are being experienced and recognized at the farm level. Perceptions align most consistently with seasonal (rather than annual) measures, gradual (rather than extreme) indicators, recent (rather than multi-decade) conditions, and absolute (rather than relative) rainfall metrics. Contrary to expectations, absolute precipitation measures generally correspond more strongly with reported perceptions than relative indicators such as SPI. These results help identify which hydrometeorological measures best reflect lived experience to inform selection of hydrologic metrics used in the study of adaptation by others.
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