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From wasteland to wonderland: Releasing resupply potential from urban minerals of electric vehicle batteries and motors in China
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DOI：10.1016/j.joule.2026.102602.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Electric vehicles are central to transport decarbonization, but their batteries and motors also concentrate critical materials whose supply chains face growing environmental and geopolitical pressure. This study situates China’s electric vehicle transition within a circular economy context by modeling how battery and motor technologies co-evolve alongside vehicle deployment, retirement, replacement, and recycling performance from 2010 to 2050. It shows that end-of-life electric vehicles are not a uniform waste stream but a technology-dependent urban mineral system. Battery inflows are projected to reach 5.1 TWh and motor inflows 11 TW by 2050, while end-of-life outflows rise sharply after the 2030s.
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