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Geopolitical risk and tourism firm resilience: Global evidence
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DOI：10.1016/j.tourman.2026.105499.png)
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Abstract
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This paper analyzes how geopolitical risk affects the performance of tourism firms and identifies the conditions under which its adverse effects are mitigated. Using a global panel of 1438 firms across 39 countries from 2007 to 2021, we find that heightened geopolitical risk significantly reduces firms’ market valuations. Drawing on risk perception theory, network theory, and institutional theory, we show that this effect is conditional rather than uniform. Specifically, firms located in countries with stronger international tourism network embeddedness experience weaker negative effects, as network connectivity facilitates demand diversification and adaptive responses. Similarly, higher institutional quality reduces the adverse impact of geopolitical risk by enhancing stability and policy credibility. These findings are robust to alternative measures and estimation methods. The paper provides new evidence on the transmission of geopolitical risk and highlights the role of structural and institutional factors in shaping resilience in the global tourism sector.
Keywords:
Tourism firms
Geopolitical risk
Firm resilience
Firm valuation
International tourism networks
Institutional quality
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