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Global multidecadal SST modes and their synchronized influence on temperature variability
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DOI：10.1016/j.accre.2026.05.020.png)
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Abstract
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Multidecadal climate variability is important for improving climate prediction and informing mitigation strategies. However, well-known oceanic modes such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) do not fully capture global multidecadal temperature variability, as they are limited to specific ocean basins and mixed timescales. In this study, we focus on variability at timescales longer than 50 years, where multidecadal modes dominate. Using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of global sea surface temperature (SST) data, we identify two distinct large-scale modes: the Tropical Synchronized Multidecadal Oscillation (TSMO) and the High-latitude Synchronized Multidecadal Oscillation (HSMO), which explain 41.4% and 28.6% of the total variance, respectively. During the positive TSMO phase, tropical and low-latitude SST warming strengthens poleward heat transport via ocean currents and the Hadley Circulation, leading to HSMO-like warming about 11 years later. In contrast, positive HSMO phase weakens the equator-to-pole thermal gradient, resulting in negative TSMO-like tropical SST anomalies after roughly 15 years. Both TSMO and HSMO, as well as their combined signal (TSMO+HSMO), show stronger relationships with global mean land surface temperature (GMLST) than the PDO, AMO, or their combination. We propose a new global-scale climate mode—the Global Synchronized Multidecadal Oscillation (GSMO)—which integrates TSMO and HSMO and exhibits its strongest expression in the Southern Hemisphere. These findings highlight the key role of tropical and Southern Hemisphere SSTs in shaping and potentially predicting multidecadal climate variability.
Keywords:
Global multidecadal variability
Ocean–atmosphere interactions
Synchronized SST oscillations
Tropical–extratropical coupling
Hadley circulation
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